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Squad 
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Post Re: Squad
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:17 pm
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Post Re: Squad
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


That's the point though: are they a better team than Wales? They still have no silverware to show for it. For all their undoubted improvements, last year they had a record defeat to England and even lost to Fiji (and no, they cannot use the Lions as an excuse - they contributed by far the fewest players to them). Around two thirds of the Welsh players from the 2012/13 campaigns are still around now. Sorry if I don't buy all the hype about Scotland, and conversely all the negativity about Wales.

My predictions for the 6N are:

(1) Ireland (2) England (3) Wales (4) Scotland (5) France (6) Italy.


Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:56 pm
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Post Re: Squad
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


That's the point though: are they a better team than Wales? They still have no silverware to show for it. For all their undoubted improvements, last year they had a record defeat to England and even lost to Fiji (and no, they cannot use the Lions as an excuse - they contributed by far the fewest players to them). Around two thirds of the Welsh players from the 2012/13 campaigns are still around now. Sorry if I don't buy all the hype about Scotland, and conversely all the negativity about Wales.

My predictions for the 6N are:

(1) Ireland (2) England (3) Wales (4) Scotland (5) France (6) Italy.


The point is, if they are better than us, they will beat us, if not, they won't. Historic results have very little meaning.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:05 am
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Post Re: Squad
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


That's the point though: are they a better team than Wales? They still have no silverware to show for it. For all their undoubted improvements, last year they had a record defeat to England and even lost to Fiji (and no, they cannot use the Lions as an excuse - they contributed by far the fewest players to them). Around two thirds of the Welsh players from the 2012/13 campaigns are still around now. Sorry if I don't buy all the hype about Scotland, and conversely all the negativity about Wales.

My predictions for the 6N are:

(1) Ireland (2) England (3) Wales (4) Scotland (5) France (6) Italy.


The point is, if they are better than us, they will beat us, if not, they won't. Historic results have very little meaning.


They do when it comes to making generalisations, working out overall trends and making predictions. Put it this way: if Treviso beat Bath this weekend in the European Cup, does that make Treviso overall a better team than Bath? Did Ireland all of a sudden become better than the All Blacks by beating them in Chicago? Did Japan and Italy all of a sudden become better than the Springboks by beating them in recent years? One swallow does not a Summer make.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:13 am
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Post Re: Squad
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


That's the point though: are they a better team than Wales? They still have no silverware to show for it. For all their undoubted improvements, last year they had a record defeat to England and even lost to Fiji (and no, they cannot use the Lions as an excuse - they contributed by far the fewest players to them). Around two thirds of the Welsh players from the 2012/13 campaigns are still around now. Sorry if I don't buy all the hype about Scotland, and conversely all the negativity about Wales.

My predictions for the 6N are:

(1) Ireland (2) England (3) Wales (4) Scotland (5) France (6) Italy.


The point is, if they are better than us, they will beat us, if not, they won't. Historic results have very little meaning.


They do when it comes to making generalisations, working out overall trends and making predictions. Put it this way: if Treviso beat Bath this weekend in the European Cup, does that make Treviso overall a better team than Bath? Did Ireland all of a sudden become better than the All Blacks by beating them in Chicago? Did Japan and Italy all of a sudden become better than the Springboks by beating them in recent years?


What bearing does the 2002 match have on the next game? How many players from that game are still in the squad?


Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:18 am
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Post Re: Squad
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
najbritcol wrote:
Actually, Rugby Vision gives Wales a 65% chance of winning the opening match, and predicts the margin of victory shall be 5 points. Whatever Wales' problems and Scotland's improvements, at the end of the day (a) the latter haven't won in Cardiff since 2002 and (b) Wales, both at club and country level, have won more silverware in one decade than Scotland have in three - three Six Nations championships (two with Grand Slams), three Pro 12 titles and a European Challenge Cup in one decade, versus two Five Nations championships (one with a Grand Slam) and one Pro 12 title in three decades.


The point that they have not beaten us at home since 2002 means nothing if they are a better team than us. Historic facts have very little bearing on the match we play them soon. The silverware we have won also means nothing for the same reason.


That's the point though: are they a better team than Wales? They still have no silverware to show for it. For all their undoubted improvements, last year they had a record defeat to England and even lost to Fiji (and no, they cannot use the Lions as an excuse - they contributed by far the fewest players to them). Around two thirds of the Welsh players from the 2012/13 campaigns are still around now. Sorry if I don't buy all the hype about Scotland, and conversely all the negativity about Wales.

My predictions for the 6N are:

(1) Ireland (2) England (3) Wales (4) Scotland (5) France (6) Italy.


The point is, if they are better than us, they will beat us, if not, they won't. Historic results have very little meaning.


They do when it comes to making generalisations, working out overall trends and making predictions. Put it this way: if Treviso beat Bath this weekend in the European Cup, does that make Treviso overall a better team than Bath? Did Ireland all of a sudden become better than the All Blacks by beating them in Chicago? Did Japan and Italy all of a sudden become better than the Springboks by beating them in recent years?


What bearing does the 2002 match have on the next game? How many players from that game are still in the squad?


2002 doesn't, but 2012/13 do - around two thirds of those squads remain. Do you honestly think that Scotland have been as good if not better than Wales over the years? To put it more brutally: would you say that Australia are, overall, as good if not better than New Zealand, because some years they've beaten them?


Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:29 am
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Post Re: Squad
As much as we dismiss bygones, it remains a truth that having the Indian sign over someone does affect the outcome.
Look at Wales NZ for a start. How many of those should we have won?

It is probably in the same mould as getting the first points up in that it changes the mind set of players and makes them do what they would not do if they were not behind. 50/50, let it go or take a risk? 98% or 102 % play the ref for a penalty? Ah, we need to do a little extra here, v take it in the stride.

Back to facts, I think Scotland are all about 2 players. Keep them subdued, and we win. Let them rule the field and we lose.

I think we will win, but it will not come as a shock if we lose by 2 scores

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Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:21 am
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Post Re: Squad
soap wrote:
As much as we dismiss bygones, it remains a truth that having the Indian sign over someone does affect the outcome.
Look at Wales NZ for a start. How many of those should we have won?

It is probably in the same mould as getting the first points up in that it changes the mind set of players and makes them do what they would not do if they were not behind. 50/50, let it go or take a risk? 98% or 102 % play the ref for a penalty? Ah, we need to do a little extra here, v take it in the stride.

Back to facts, I think Scotland are all about 2 players. Keep them subdued, and we win. Let them rule the field and we lose.

I think we will win, but it will not come as a shock if we lose by 2 scores


Funnily enough, I'd argue the same about Ireland as what you've said about Scotland. As both Wales and Scarlets proved last year, once you can keep Sexton and Murray quiet, then you have a good chance of winning.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 2:55 am
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Post Re: Squad
soap wrote:
As much as we dismiss bygones, it remains a truth that having the Indian sign over someone does affect the outcome.
Look at Wales NZ for a start. How many of those should we have won?

It is probably in the same mould as getting the first points up in that it changes the mind set of players and makes them do what they would not do if they were not behind. 50/50, let it go or take a risk? 98% or 102 % play the ref for a penalty? Ah, we need to do a little extra here, v take it in the stride.

Back to facts, I think Scotland are all about 2 players. Keep them subdued, and we win. Let them rule the field and we lose.

I think we will win, but it will not come as a shock if we lose by 2 scores


I would agree that there is a psychological factor that goes with having not beaten a team and a I agree with having not beaten a team for a while. But if Scotland play better than us in the Six Nations, they will likely beat us, regardless of any historic results.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 8:02 am
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Post Re: Squad
Cymru am byth wrote:
soap wrote:
As much as we dismiss bygones, it remains a truth that having the Indian sign over someone does affect the outcome.
Look at Wales NZ for a start. How many of those should we have won?

It is probably in the same mould as getting the first points up in that it changes the mind set of players and makes them do what they would not do if they were not behind. 50/50, let it go or take a risk? 98% or 102 % play the ref for a penalty? Ah, we need to do a little extra here, v take it in the stride.

Back to facts, I think Scotland are all about 2 players. Keep them subdued, and we win. Let them rule the field and we lose.

I think we will win, but it will not come as a shock if we lose by 2 scores


I would agree that there is a psychological factor that goes with having not beaten a team and a I agree with having not beaten a team for a while. But if Scotland play better than us in the Six Nations, they will likely beat us, regardless of any historic results.



IF they play their A game. IF it is still in their minds that they have to do more, or take less risks, we get an a advantage.

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Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Squad
I'll ask again since no one answered.
Why when everyone is screaming and moaning about Wales needing to play a more expansive game, why everyone has gone for Webb and Biggar. I've seen nothing expansive in their game this or last season. Davies and Patchell are playing an expansive game and doing it exceptionally well. The only comment I read was that patchell is weak defensively, well he may have been at the Blues but he aint now. Is this just our usual tribal crap about not wanting too may from one region in the team or has someone got an answer?

We're 50/1 to win grandslam, worth a quid or two of anyones money. Got a tenner on myself.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 5:59 pm
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Post Re: Squad
Exile~ wrote:
I'll ask again since no one answered.
Why when everyone is screaming and moaning about Wales needing to play a more expansive game, why everyone has gone for Webb and Biggar. I've seen nothing expansive in their game this or last season. Davies and Patchell are playing an expansive game and doing it exceptionally well. The only comment I read was that patchell is weak defensively, well he may have been at the Blues but he aint now. Is this just our usual tribal crap about not wanting too may from one region in the team or has someone got an answer?

We're 50/1 to win grandslam, worth a quid or two of anyones money. Got a tenner on myself.

I didn't know you were in the running to win a Grand Slam. :D


Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:12 pm
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Post Re: Squad
Exile~ wrote:
I'll ask again since no one answered.
Why when everyone is screaming and moaning about Wales needing to play a more expansive game, why everyone has gone for Webb and Biggar. I've seen nothing expansive in their game this or last season. Davies and Patchell are playing an expansive game and doing it exceptionally well. The only comment I read was that patchell is weak defensively, well he may have been at the Blues but he aint now. Is this just our usual tribal crap about not wanting too may from one region in the team or has someone got an answer?

We're 50/1 to win grandslam, worth a quid or two of anyones money. Got a tenner on myself.



Safe pairs of hands. Biggar in particular. Patchell is good, but tends to dive free ball to the opposition. I can see him becoming our 15 too.
Watching Davies today I thought what a good centre he would make?

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Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:18 pm
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Post Re: Squad
soap wrote:
Cymru am byth wrote:
soap wrote:
As much as we dismiss bygones, it remains a truth that having the Indian sign over someone does affect the outcome.
Look at Wales NZ for a start. How many of those should we have won?

It is probably in the same mould as getting the first points up in that it changes the mind set of players and makes them do what they would not do if they were not behind. 50/50, let it go or take a risk? 98% or 102 % play the ref for a penalty? Ah, we need to do a little extra here, v take it in the stride.

Back to facts, I think Scotland are all about 2 players. Keep them subdued, and we win. Let them rule the field and we lose.

I think we will win, but it will not come as a shock if we lose by 2 scores


I would agree that there is a psychological factor that goes with having not beaten a team and a I agree with having not beaten a team for a while. But if Scotland play better than us in the Six Nations, they will likely beat us, regardless of any historic results.



IF they play their A game. IF it is still in their minds that they have to do more, or take less risks, we get an a advantage.


I agree, I'm not talking about the gameom our next meeting, more whether a result in 2002 will have any bearing on our match against them in the 6Nations.


Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:10 pm
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Post Re: Squad
tom21 wrote:
[quote=I would agree with most of that Dai. I would personally have Liam on one wing though and then see who is fit to play on the other one. North is first choice and I would say Amos is ahead of Steff Evans and Cuthbert after the autumn, with Adams as a bolter. I would go for either Patchell at Anscombe at full-back (it would be a case of seeing who shows up best in camp), as I think they could offer something different in attack, but think Halfpenny will play if fit.

I would go with:

Patchell / Anscombe, L Williams, S Williams, Parkes, (really depends on fitness), Biggar, Webb, Evans, Owens, Lee, B Davies, AWJ, Shingler, Tipuric, Moriarty

Bench - Smith, Dee, Francis, S Davies, Navidi / Jenkins, G Davies, O Williams, Halfpenny

As I said before, the Scots will come to Cardiff as favourites, but I do fancy us.

I like you would go for most of that, but the back row, I realise Tipuric is a big favourite on here, but he has never cut it for me, a 7 today needs to be a little bit more than what tips can give, that's why I've gone for Jenkins.
Shingler did well in the AI but, so to did Navidi, Shingler for the bench so to J Davies.

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Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:25 pm
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