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Latest World Rankings 
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:42 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:21 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


I think the point is, yes, they can beat eachother, but as crude as the rankings are, they are based on recent performances and in general, reflect where the teams are. I.e. England are deservedly second placed and you would expect them to beat more often than not, Argentina and Fiji who are currently in the top ten.


Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:30 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Pretty much. How often do Fiji beat Australia? How often do Scotland beat England? How often do we beat Australia?


Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:13 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Pearcey3 wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Pretty much. How often do Fiji beat Australia? How often do Scotland beat England? How often do we beat Australia?


Not so long ago you could have said how often do Japan or Italy beat South Africa, how often does Scotland beat Australia. The point is it can and sometimes does happen.

Like someone else said earlier world cup games between most teams usually come down to two things injuries and form.


Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:41 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Pretty much. How often do Fiji beat Australia? How often do Scotland beat England? How often do we beat Australia?


Not so long ago you could have said how often do Japan or Italy beat South Africa, how often does Scotland beat Australia. The point is it can and sometimes does happen.

Like someone else said earlier world cup games between most teams usually come down to two things injuries and form.



World Cup shocks don' t happen too often though. By and large the fancied teams near!y always win. Being tier one team doesn't guarantee us a favourable quarter final draw but the balance of probabilities makes it mode likely that 1) we will make the quarter finals and 2) top the group and so face a team finishing second in another group


Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:09 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Pretty much. How often do Fiji beat Australia? How often do Scotland beat England? How often do we beat Australia?


Not so long ago you could have said how often do Japan or Italy beat South Africa, how often does Scotland beat Australia. The point is it can and sometimes does happen.

Like someone else said earlier world cup games between most teams usually come down to two things injuries and form.


You are right, it can and does happen. But infrequently. Enough that if you put money on the tier 1 teams beating the tenth placed team

Australia v Fiji - played 20, Australia won 17 (having won their last 13 games - since 1972)
New Zealand - played 5, won 5
Ireland v Fiji - played 5, won 5
Wales v Fiji - played 11, won 9
South Africa v Fiji - played 3 won 3
England v Fiji - played 6, England won 6


Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:53 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Cymru am byth wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
Pearcey3 wrote:
Langland Exile wrote:
ironrobson21 wrote:
As I've said before on a different thread, the rankings don't matter arse because, as this 6 nations has shown, everyone in the top 10 (with the exception of NZ) can beat each other.



History would suggest otherwise..



Indeed.


Are you saying the top 10 can't beat each other?


Pretty much. How often do Fiji beat Australia? How often do Scotland beat England? How often do we beat Australia?


Not so long ago you could have said how often do Japan or Italy beat South Africa, how often does Scotland beat Australia. The point is it can and sometimes does happen.

Like someone else said earlier world cup games between most teams usually come down to two things injuries and form.


You are right, it can and does happen. But infrequently. Enough that if you put money on the tier 1 teams beating the tenth placed team

Australia v Fiji - played 20, Australia won 17 (having won their last 13 games - since 1972)
New Zealand - played 5, won 5
Ireland v Fiji - played 5, won 5
Wales v Fiji - played 11, won 9
South Africa v Fiji - played 3 won 3
England v Fiji - played 6, England won 6


Argentina, Scotland and Italy have also lost to Fiji (the former in the inaugural World Cup) despite being Tier One countries. But I get your point.


Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:27 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Oh South Africa, you *fupping* rugby superpower you.

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Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:08 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Figaro wrote:
With the rankings as they are, I think the best possible group we could get would be something like

Ireland
Wales
Georgia
Romania*
Russia*/Uruguay*

Absolute worst case scenario would be

New Zealand
Wales
Argentina
Italy
USA*

(*Haven't yet officially qualified)

I don't think that's too bad; Argentina are definitely beatable. If we beat France on the weekend there's a reasonable chance they'd drop to 9th and we'd play them instead of Argentina in the "worst case scenario/group of death" group.

both *fupping* awesome draws? If you cant beat Argi, you shouldnt be there

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Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:21 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Forrealz wrote:
If you cant beat Argi, you shouldnt be there.


That's a statement.

I can hark back to the days when New Zealand wanted 12 or 16 teams in the World Cup ....

Are you starting to think that, Forr?


Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:33 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Forrealz wrote:
Figaro wrote:
With the rankings as they are, I think the best possible group we could get would be something like

Ireland
Wales
Georgia
Romania*
Russia*/Uruguay*

Absolute worst case scenario would be

New Zealand
Wales
Argentina
Italy
USA*

(*Haven't yet officially qualified)

I don't think that's too bad; Argentina are definitely beatable. If we beat France on the weekend there's a reasonable chance they'd drop to 9th and we'd play them instead of Argentina in the "worst case scenario/group of death" group.

both *fupping* awesome draws? If you cant beat Argi, you shouldnt be there


I wouldn't call any group with New Zealand in it "awesome". Also Argentina tend to do well at World Cups, better than they do at autumn internationals at any rate.

Even assuming we beat Argentina, the second group it would be more like a typical Wales WC group, in which you'd expect us to come second - in every WC with 5-team groups, we've come second in our group (except 2007 when we came third after losing to Fiji, which was still a group you'd have expected us to come second in).

I would say that an "awesome" draw would be one we have a decent chance of winning, which means that the best team besides us has to be Ireland, or a weaker team than Ireland. There's a 1/4 chance of that happening if we end up 5th-8th, and a 3/4 chance if we finish 4th (as I'm assuming South Africa will revert to the mean at least somewhat between now and 2019).


Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:45 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
These are the rankings for the draw, with not all teams qualified yet.

Band A:
New Zealand
England
Australia
Ireland

Band B:

France
Wales
Scotland
South Africa

Band C:

Argentina
Japan
Georgia
Italy

Band D:

Europe 1 - Almost certainly Romania
Americas 1 - (USA/Canada)
Oceania 1 - Fiji
Oceania 2 - Samoa

Band E:
Africa 1 - Namibia
Europe2/Oceania3 - Almost certainly Tonga
Americas 2 - USA/Canada
Repechage winner (probably Uruguay or Russia)

Best case scenario for Wales would be Ireland, Georgia, Romania, Uruguay.

Worst case scenario would be New Zealand, Argentina, Fiji, Canada. I do think that's a group we could well get out of though.


Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:01 am
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
Figaro wrote:
These are the rankings for the draw, with not all teams qualified yet.

Band A:
New Zealand
England
Australia
Ireland

Band B:

France
Wales
Scotland
South Africa

Band C:

Argentina
Japan
Georgia
Italy

Band D:

Europe 1 - Almost certainly Romania
Americas 1 - (USA/Canada)
Oceania 1 - Fiji
Oceania 2 - Samoa

Band E:
Africa 1 - Namibia
Europe2/Oceania3 - Almost certainly Tonga
Americas 2 - USA/Canada
Repechage winner (probably Uruguay or Russia)

Best case scenario for Wales would be Ireland, Georgia, Romania, Uruguay.

Worst case scenario would be New Zealand, Argentina, Fiji, Canada. I do think that's a group we could well get out of though.


Canada are not the force they sort of were during the 90's when they beat Wales in Cardiff and then a year later France at home. They are currently ranked 22nd in the world and lost to Brazil in the Americas Six Nations.


Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:10 pm
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Post Re: Latest World Rankings
I think the big one is to avoid Argentina.

IF we can do that (75% chance)
then we should get out of our group in at least 2nd place.


Mon Mar 20, 2017 9:48 pm
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