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Pre-TRC Cripple Fight - Aus vs SA 
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Post Pre-TRC Cripple Fight - Aus vs SA
Australia vs South Africa - the past 2 RWC cycles.

Super Rugby Winners
Aus 2011, 2014 ✔
SA --

Rugby Championship
Aus Played - 31, Won - 16, Lost - 14, Draw - 1 ✔
SA Played - 31, Won - 13, Lost - 17, Draw - 1
Aus - Winners 2011, 2015 ✔
SA Winners --

RWC
Aus 2011 - 3rd, 2015 - 2nd ✔
SA 2011 --, 2015 - 3rd

Overall Win/Loss Since 2011
Aus Played - 87, Won - 49, Lost - 36, Draw - 2
SA Played - 72, Won - 44, Lost - 26, Draw - 2 ✔

With all the doom and gloom talk around Aus rugby atm I decided to have a closer look at the stats since 2011. From the looks of it SA have had a far worse run over the past 6 years than Aus - at least vs SH competition. SA's overall win percentage is a bit higher when you factor in playing the NH teams, but in SH matches and tourneys it is clearly NZ -> Aus -> SA. Aus have won the TRC twice, they've won SR twice, they've made the semis in both RWCs.

The current SR season has been pretty bad for Aus, but if you look back over the years (even before 2011) they always have a real rebuilding phase and then a peak for RWC - much more than most teams. In 2011 people on these boards were banging on about how Aus were the team to beat - and it was exactly for this reason - they time their peaks. Aus tends to lose more games mid-cycle. ATM they have a lot of young prospects coming on that could be class players in a couple of years. Just a quick look through the SR squads and you can see the average age is very young. I predict that come 2019 Aus will once again make at least the semis, a feat that shouldn't be sneezed at.

Comparing Aus to NZ and sounding alarm bells when NZ is in the best sustained form in history creates a false view of the relative level of Australia.

Does this mean Aus will be good in this TRC? Nope, Id be very surprised if they can win in NZ or SA. They are probably looking at a 3rd place this year. But in 2018 they'll be much better, and then in 2019 a threat once again.


Sun Aug 06, 2017 10:57 pm
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Post Re: Pre-TRC Cripple Fight - Aus vs SA
Interesting stuff. :thumbright:

Can't believe our first game is in 2 weeks! Bring that shit on!

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Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:36 am
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Post Re: Pre-TRC Cripple Fight - Aus vs SA
Just really hope Aussie can get back on the horse, they have bigger concerns re depth etc. SA have players all over the shop. They army up to it lately but player depth world wide is OK. They are just screwed with everything else. The bias in commentators and coaching is so obvious. Re race, paybacks maybe but hard to watch it old unfold over this time.

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Mon Aug 07, 2017 1:58 am
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